What a profound spectacle to watch President Hussein Mubarak of Egypt fall from grace to grass. It would be difficult to ascertain what exactly led to the overthrowing of a despot who led Egypt for over three decades, dined and wined with kings, queens, presidents, prime ministers, democrats, capitalists, communists, and oligarchs of all shades and colors across the globe.
Progressive pressure groups and some media outlets would like to credit the fall of the former President of Egypt to social media; however, those who know better will tell you that it takes more than social media; it took the will and dedication of the Egyptian masses to bring down a conniving despot. The stars for his fall were probably better aligned this year, considering that the April 6 pressure groups in Egypt had consistently worked to topple his government prior till now but had been unsuccessful; just as the Muslim brotherhood and other political action groups in Egypt had worked to see Mubarak go into retirement with exasperation.
To paraphrase the Nineteen Century French Economic Journalist Basitiat Frédéric (1801-1850), the (Egyptian) poor have risen against the rich house of the pharaohs, the proletariat against the monarchy, government outsiders against the insiders; the commoners against the power that be, the scorns of the earth against the filthy rich; the underclass against the blue blood! Tasha, times are a-changing! The former first Egyptian family, who has been alleged to have stolen billions, if banking record can help prove that, is tonight in a hole in the resort city Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, just like a foreign tourist in the land of his father and mother! How are the mighty falling and the weapons of the war, perish! With a backdrop like this, what must now be our focus in foreign policy initiative for Egypt or diplomatic work arrangement with respect to the new nations that are falling into democracy or falling out of tyranny and oppression from despots in the middle east? Our blog tonight attempts to explore this question and associated developments.
Just before Mubarak fell, the embattled President attempted to hold on to power, by giving a speech now considered as a flagrant insult to the Egyptian public. While remaining defiant as he offered a theory that foreign influence was behind the progressive groups' attempt to dethrone him and relied on appealing to the nationalistic sense and pride of a people he once had total hold over. Obama Administration did not help matter either, as it continued to diplomatically work behind the screen, imploring the despot to depart from office. The White House publicly denied it was working against an ally, but deep within the State Department Office were foreign policy experts on middle east working over time, trying to figure out what next step the former president was going to take. The soon-to-be ousted President Mubarak attempted to arouse the sense of pride and dignity of being Egyptian, but failed to appreciate the gravity of the movement against his leadership and the extent of hatred for his administration. Maybe this was a folly of his, but the reality was that time already ran out on him with the new protest and there was nothing anyone outside of Egypt could do to save the despot.
At long last, Egyptians of all shades, rich, poor, Christians and Muslims were completely in agreement that it was time for the despot to go, yet in his delusion, he found stepping down from what he considered a meritorious service to his motherland, difficult to swallow. Alas, the same preconceived group, the military whom he had assume an unyielding loyalty from, showed him the door. Mubarak hand-picked Vice-President, Omar Suleiman and Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, probably advised him that his time is up; and, though he may not want it, the forces against him as the President were too overwhelming. The thirty seconds announcement from Omar Suleiman in an eye-drooping and self-defeated look said it all: the people have spoken and there was no more room for Mubarak tactics or oppression. Egyptians people took back their power!
Mubarak wanted to remain in the office, he wanted to hold on to power, Egyptians who had been deprived of any sense of decency for three decades, wanted their freedom and were willing to die for it. The revolt from the people was as huge as a hurricane and as wet as dripping rain. The dictatorial rule of Mubarak conflicted with the people’s cry for freedom. There was no doubt, a transformation was taking place last week Thursday. No one however, knew what the form of transformation was about to take. The uncertainty of the revolt beclouded even the most astute foreign policy experts in America. The character of the transformation was unpredictable and the certainty of the effort of the progressive groups in Egypt was arguably debatable. However, at last, Mubarak fell.
For now, it would be difficult to say whether Mubarak's despotic power has passed from him to the military; or that the newly found freedom by Egyptians are concrete enough to guarantee the type of Democracy or freedom, they are badly seeking. We do not know, whether the freedom sought by Egyptians is going to pass from theory to practice or that it may be delayed by the military care-taker government that has taken over from Mubarak. What is known though is: The former President of Egypt is no more the head of state in Egypt and his past influences, if not completely wiped out by now, has waned disproportionately. Mubarak is despised everywhere in Egypt and probably a few groups who may still have nostalgia for his leadership, are fast realizing that a new day is here for the country: Egypt.
Our pivotal foreign policy question now: how do we address or deal with the new realities in the middle east, vis-a-vis the change that has suddenly befallen or about to befall many nations in that region? Where does our national interest stand? What must we now do to ensure that our national interests that were preserved under the previous leaderships are not eroded with the new dispensation in the middle east, especially in the land of the pharaohs?
Turning a mix of loosely surviving despots and probably some budding democratic states into advantageous or sympathetic loyalists, must now take a prominent place in our foreign policy initiatives. How will our prior negotiations that have so much served our nation so well, survive under the new leaderships and systems of government? Reduced budget for toppling the despotic leaders across the globe will be in order. Financing and supporting internet connections for many more nations in the region is not out of order but cannot be solely regarded as a silver bullet for bringing down governments in nations as Iran, North Korea or Yemen.
Understanding the progress on the ground in many nations yearning for Democracy is one step forward; however, a renewed emphasis on those areas of cooperation with progressive groups in unstable nations where we can gain some traction and commitment from the new power brokers, may just be another alternative in waiting. Building our carrots around those initiatives and programs that will help the nations with their newly found freedom understand what is expected in running and managing a democratic system of government must now be part of our foreign policy diplomatic portfolio. Those nations are yearning for knowledge on how to accelerate nation building in a democratic styled system of government. We must now help them understand what it takes to be successful and must be part of our focus in foreign policy initiative.
No one must now debate that the 'Domino Effect' is in full play and we may not have complete control over how many nations with despotic or unstable governments may fall in the coming months or year. The foreign policy war now is not sustaining former despots who have bid our interests; rather, the war is capturing the new power brokers in the nations that are gradually falling into Democracy, if you will allow me to say so. The challenge for the State Department and foreign policy analysts is how to develop mutually beneficial democratic government building programs, programs that will gain currency among the former progressive pressure groups who saw our nation as a beacon of hope, the shinning light on the hill, which many of them are now clamoring for or flocking to be like. How successful we are able to achieve this new threshold, or how we are able to convince these new democratic neophytes will determine our level of influence in the coming decades in these countries.
We must now invest in leadership development in democratic nation building in radically under-capitalized or un-capitalized economies. While opening our benevolent hearts, we must not have the illusion that all these countries will end up being loyal or sympathetic to our course or immediate interest in the type of government that will emanate from this new crisis over the middle east or the world. We cannot remain docile hoping that once these countries are able to get rid of their oppressing governments or start to take baby steps in democratic governance, they will see issues our way and manage their affairs the same way we have done.
There are some nuances and characteristics peculiar to some cultures in the states seeking democracy that are antithetic to some democratic principles. Some of the inherent cultural road blocks may make progress to a successful democratic state unattainable on our own time table. Like new babies, we may just have to wait for some nations to find their own bearings, just like a new baby, they must be allowed to fail and learn from their mistakes as they take the long walk to a free and democratic state. While doing all these, we must stay loyal to our national interests. This is our new foreign policy realities and we must now work to embrace them in our foreign diplomatic work.
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