Friday, July 5, 2013

Egyptian Uprising II: A New Course for A Restless Nation?



Keywords or Terms: Revolutionary Promises; Mohammed Morsi; Egypt; Fuel  Parliamentary Elections; Shortages; Corruption; Teething Problem; Muslim Brotherhood; El-Sissi; Military Intervention; Role of Religion in Government; and Tahrir Square

The first democratically elected President of the most populous Arab State and probably the most contemporary modern Muslim State in the Continent of Africa was ousted this week. The people of Egypt would now have to lay the grounds for another try at Democracy. Start with – doing away with the entrenched rules from the Muslim Brotherhood and or taking a long look at the place of religion in government. The Islamist movements have lost their credibility before the people of Egypt with the new uprising at Tahrir square. A transitional group led by the Chief Justice of Egypt is now saddled with the challenge of ushering the nation into parliamentary and presidential elections.

Just on Wednesday, Mohammed Morsi, the first democratically elected President of the State of Egypt had attempted to save his job by crying out through Twitter feed that the ultimatum given by General Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, the Commander-in-Chief and Minister of Egypt’s Defense was tantamount to a palace coup, was hardly heeded. Egyptian people were drowning out Morsi’s chances, even as Sheik Ahmed el-Tayeb, the head honcho of the Sunni fellowship in Egypt attempted to shore up Morsi’s chances by calling out for cooler heads to prevail. The Egyptian people were no longer impressed by the type of Democracy Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim brotherhood was attempting to force down their throat. The Egyptian people had had enough so they used the long known and well established instrument of political change to all democracies: the power of the people!
 
The removal of President Morsi was seen as a triumph for the will of the people. While some cronies of the ousted President vowed to use their blood to save a dithering and troubled Presidency, the people wanted him out. While there were some inhibition even here in America regarding the ouster of a Democratically elected President, the Egyptian Progressives insisted that their June 30, 2012 democratically elected leader must go! 

Morsi's final push through the twitter feed that the measures announced by Egyptian Armed Forces represents a coup and must be rejected by free Egyptians was discountenanced. Former President Morsi's twitter feed sounds like an experience of a man drowning in a flood of confusion regarding what Democracy actually means consequent to the Arab Spring. There are those who believe that what ensues from this new revolt in Egypt will likely become what follows in the Arab political world. I could recall in my earlier blog on American Foreign Policy and the Egyptian Uprising, I intoned that bringing Democracy to Egypt, a nation entrenched with huge influence of highly political-religious sectarianism and powerful Islamist rebelliousness is hardly going to be a cake walk. The event of the past month has borne my suspicion out.

What happened in Egypt this week, May or May not follow in other Arab nations that experienced the Arab Spring revolt; however, the experience is more likely to jolt the current leadership in those nations. The fact that Egypt is a trendsetter in the Arab world is one suspect; the reality of the impact of modern-day information technology is another. The pace of movement of revolutionary groups' efforts in bringing down Mohammed Morsi spread like wild fire on the prairie and this is probably a suspect reason, why it is not unlikely that another revolt in the Arab nations that are seeking the type of freedom known in the West, is going to take place. It is just a matter of time. Remember Tunisia?  How about those tree 'huggers' in Turkey?

Contemplate the youthful exuberance of Egyptians at Tahrir Square first time; and; the Tunisian Sucide-by-fire Experience that unleashed turmoil in the Arab world, just before hell broke loose about a year and a half ago? Much as change can be brought about by these forms of revolutionary events, those kinds of exuberance hardly leads to easy and successful democratic governance in a jiffy. Stable Leadership takes a while to develop in a Democracy. There are definitely going to be some growing up and baby steps pains and the learning curve to Democracy may be steeper in one Arab nation than another; however, Democracy is feasible if the people in a nation are willing to sacrifice; or allow themselves to reflect on their effort so far at each interval.

Now don’t get me wrong that Egypt could not make a success of a second run at Democracy; my hypothesis is,  it is going take a long walk; one that is going to need some patience, a couple of hiccups and probably another blood birth before a stable democratic state is born. The Eighteen Century American experience of crafting a document for a stable democracy can hardly be duplicated in current day information and ideas interchange without some crisis. A stable and long running democracy can hardly be duplicated in the current day environment of information and ideas interchange, where there are prior multiple problems associated with religion and the way of life of a people.

Another stand-off between the led and their leaders are likely to ensue, especially where there are entrenched values of an existing subgroup or religiously nationalistic group as the Muslim Brotherhood. The escalated clashes and tensions in Egypt tonight is not out of the ouster of Mohammed Morsi; rather, it is one emanating from what has been affably referred to in some quarters as a clash of culture; one of what a Democratic State in a Muslim world would take and the other, the extent to which a nation can completely adopt the type of Western Democracy that many nations and peoples of the world, admire of America’s Democracy. This is a tall order! Even the American forefathers had to quarantine themselves to prevent a leak of efforts to wrench power from the crown. 

To ideologues who believe that American type Democracy and stability can come to a nation overnight, or an Arab nation like Egypt, I say think again! Democracy sought by the exuberant Egyptian youths or celebrating and admonishing adults in Tahrir square after the ouster of Mohammed Morsi, may someday look like what obtains in America today; however, in the short run, political observers and nation builders must expect the type of government change in Egypt this past week. Change is hardly easy, not to talk of a political change in a nation that has suffered from brutality of a long standing tyrant. The crisis is not just avoidable, considering the nature of convoluted corruption, power struggles among self- interest groups and instability that has plagued many of the Arab states that went through the Arab Spring. Lest I forget, there are still some Arab States under monarchs and tight feasted leadership or ruler-ship that will venerate the “bad” democratic experiment in Egypt; others may vilify it. The huge work ahead for those Arab nations that went through the Arab Spring revolt will constitute more than writing a new constitution, chopping down the heads of leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood or entrenched factional groups existing currently in many Arab States, it is going to take help from the West regarding possible pitfalls in transitioning into a full democracy.

In the absence of greatly increased commitment from progressive members of the Arab Spring in the transition effort into Democracy, a full blown democratic state as contemplated by them as well as the rich nations of the world may end up being a mirage. A wide gap still exist between the Arab leaders, even those clamoring to transition into full blown democracy and those just chugging along based on the favor of the movement for change in Arab world and the teaming youths in the Arab world. Listen to some observers in the Arab nation of Syria, they are begging to have a group like the Muslim Brotherhood in their nation. The type of perceived disciple among the Muslim Brotherhood that is currently being rejected by progressives in Egypt are being clamored for by progressives in Syria; in their conviction or belief, the current stand-off in Syria people’s effort to ouster their leader would not exist, if there was a group like the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria. Yet these dichotomies are less inhibiting to a full blown Democracy if a nation is willing to go through the pains. US history to democracy includes an isolationist tradition; maybe the Egyptian or other Arab nations in the spring revolt, may want to go through this process; however, the urge to transition rather rapidly to what America now enjoys must match the circumstance in the various states in the Arab world.

Summoning up the Chief Justice of Egypt to help transition the nation into a new leadership that will deliver the type of governance that will help stop the protracted fuel shortages, sharp depreciation of the Egyptian currency or the depletion of the nation’s foreign reserves, is probably not the panacea to the suspension of constitution and an expedited parliamentary and presidential elections. No one or nation can easily wish away this mired of problems in the average Egyptian life. A new leadership cannot fix all these and other known problems with a teething Democracy; however, the people of Egypt who fought day and night for the ouster of their past President cannot sensibly assume that a new person in the Presidency would solve the current problems with probably the entrenchment of favoritism to a group over others. Arab nations, which went through the spring revolt, and probably others, who are seeking some form of transformation in their nation’s leadership, must address various political, religious and ideological issues in their nation that may prevent a full blown democracy once a leader is identified to see the nation through the steep learning curve to a democratic state.

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